Anchoring Household’s Inflation Expectations when Inflation is High
National Economics University
E-PhD Program Seminar Series
Anchoring Household’s Inflation Expectations when Inflation is High
by
Giang Nghiem
Leibniz University Hannover
Institute of Money and International Finance
Time and Venue
Time: 10.00AM – 11.00AM
Date: Tuesday, 19 March 2024
Venue: Room 15.01, Level 15, Building A1, National Economics University
207 Giai Phong Road, Hanoi, Vietnam
Abstract
This paper explores communication strategies for anchoring households’ medium-term inflation expectations in a high inflation environment. We conducted a randomized controlled trial (RCT) with a representative sample of 4,000 German consumers in early 2023, with information treatments including a qualitative statement by the ECB president and quantitative information about the ECB’s inflation target and about projected inflation. Our results reveal that inflation projections are most effective, but combining information about the inflation target with a qualitative statement also significantly improves anchoring. The treatment effects are particularly pronounced among respondents with high financial literacy and high trust in the central bank.
About presenter
Giang Nghiem is a Postdoctoral Researcher and Lecturer at the Institute of Money and International Finance at Leibniz University Hannover in Germany. He is an empirical economist, using survey data to explore questions in behavioral macroeconomics, household finance, consumers‘ inflation expectations, and central bank communication. His research has been published in the Review of Economics and Statistics, European Journal of Political Economy, and World Development. He holds a B.A. in Banking and Finance from National Economics University in Vietnam, an M.A. in Policy Economics from Williams College in the U.S., an M.Sc. in Quantitative Economics, and a Ph.D. in Economics from Goethe University Frankfurt in Germany. Before pursuing his doctorate, he was an Economist at the Monetary Policy Department at the State Bank of Vietnam from 2007 to 2015.
About series
This seminar series is part of the E-PhD Program at National Economics University. It targets PhD students, early-career researchers, and senior faculty who find interested in doing research in the areas of economics, business, management, and other inter-disciplinary fields of social science. The series is a platform for the wider research community to exchange ideas, networks and collaborations.
Contact details
Bach Ngoc Thang
Seminar series coordinator
Room 15.04, Building A1
Institute for Sustainable Development
National Economics University
207 Giai Phong Road, Hanoi, Vietnam
M: +84 35 443 1750
E: bnthang@gmail.com, or thangbn@neu.edu.vn
